Investors seek harbor in gold as US and Israel strike Iran
Lithium prices jump after Zimbabwe bans concentrate exports
A $40 billion copper boom in Argentina hinges on revamped glacier law
QazMoly nears $240M US funding for tungsten project in Kazakhstan
Dubai gold flows curbed as flights halted due to US-Israeli strikes on Iran
Investors seek harbor in gold as US and Israel strike Iran
The US and Israeli strikes on Iran have intensified uncertainty across global markets, with investors closely watching potential safe-haven flows into bullion. Here is some reaction from investors, traders and analysts:
Edward Meir, analyst at Marex
“I think you’re going to see a knee jerk spike up in most commodity markets, including gold and oil. This will be a natural response to the outbreak of hostilities, which was rather unexpected in terms of scale and scope.”
“I think we could open up by about $200/ounce on gold, but then drift lower over the course of the day. The markets are rather dispassionate when it comes to military conflicts; the only thing investors are ultimately focused on is whether the oil flows will be interrupted so once the initial spike is over, the initial rally tends to fade.”
Hugo Pascal, precious metals trader at Inproved
“With traditional exchanges closed, tokenized gold is currently trading at a premium, signalling a bullish ‘flight to safety’ ahead of the week’s open. Our digital proxies are showing a strong weekend bid.”
“PAX Gold (PAXG) is currently leading the charge at $5,344/oz (+2.2% since Friday), while Tether Gold (XAUt) has climbed to $5,292/oz (+1.2%).”
However, “that weekend proxy premiums often overstate the initial gap but accurately reflect the direction”.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade
“Gold is likely to be in higher demand than usual when markets open on Monday. Given the risks regarding how long the conflict may last, which other nations could be dragged in, and inflation fears, gold is expected to assume its mantle as the safe haven asset of choice.”
“Stock markets and other risk assets will probably be sold off and investors will be looking for the best place to park their funds, and gold will likely be atop that list.”
Lithium prices jump after Zimbabwe bans concentrate exports
Lithium prices and shares surged after Zimbabwe, one of the world’s top producers, suspended concentrate exports, fueling fears that global supplies of the battery ingredient will tighten.
Lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rallied 5.4% to 177,000 yuan ($25,856) a ton as of 11:21 a.m. local time. Shares of lithium producers from China to Australia and the Americas also jumped.
Zimbabwe halted exports of lithium concentrate from Wednesday, in a move that would promote domestic processing and curtail illegal shipments. The ban is in effect until further notice, said Mines Minister Polite Kambamura. Export authorizations will only be forthcoming to companies holding valid mining licenses and approved processing capacity, the minister said in a statement.
The African nation accounted for about 10% of the world’s mined lithium last year, according to the US Geological Survey. Exports of lithium sulphate, an intermediate product, wouldn’t be affected by the new policy, Citic Securities Co. said in a note.
A $40 billion copper boom in Argentina hinges on revamped glacier law
Filo del Sol sulphide deposit in Argentina.
The way Argentina’s president and some of the world’s biggest miners see it, all that stands between them and billions in copper riches are hunks of icy rock and overzealous legislation.
That’s why, over the last year, executives from Glencore Plc, Lundin Mining Corp. and partner BHP Group have filed into Javier Milei’s presidential palace in Buenos Aires. These companies and others are keen to invest about $40 billion in Argentina’s untapped copper belt when miners worldwide struggle to keep pace with accelerating demand for the wiring metal.
Milei has plenty of reason to make this happen. His government is yearning to show its austerity and pro-market approach are translating into sizable foreign investment and well-paying jobs before the 2027 presidential election. Longer term, the investments have the potential to vault Argentina into the world’s top 10 copper producers and, at today’s prices, equate to more than $10 billion in annual revenue.
QazMoly nears $240M US funding for tungsten project in Kazakhstan
Kazakh company QazMoly said it could get as much as $240 million in United States funding to develop its Drozhilov project in Kazakhstan if a deal can be struck to sell tungsten output to US interests.
The US Export-Import Bank expressed its interest in potentially financing the project in a letter to UK-based Fosbury Capital, which is acting as Drozhilov’s exclusive off-taker and financing partner, QazMoly said Thursday. The potential financing package would cover a “significant portion” of the project’s capital requirements, QazMoly said in a statement.
Any EXIM Bank financing would be conditional on all of the project’s tungsten off-take being sold to the US, QazMoly said. The US government considers tungsten a strategically critical mineral.
Tungsten prices have surged fivefold over the past year as underinvestment and tightening Chinese supply push the market towards what BMO Capital Markets warn could become a severe global shortage. Global inventories are low and another deficit is forecast for this year, the bank said this month.
Defence
Tungsten carbide, prized for its extreme hardness and density, is essential in machine parts, drill bits and hard-facing materials as in defence applications.
Global demand for tungsten is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8%, making it a $10 billion industry by the mid-2030s, QazMoly said.
Dubai gold flows curbed as flights halted due to US-Israeli strikes on Iran
Physical gold flows to and from Dubai’s bullion trading hub will be severely curbed in coming days as airlines cancel flights due to US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation, three metals industry sources said.
Dubai’s trading hub is a major gold supplier to Switzerland, Hong Kong and India, a major consumer. Gold travels by plane due to security and insurance issues stemming from its value-to-weight ratio.
“It looks like most if not all airlines have cancelled their flights, so not going to be any gold moving for a couple of days,” one of the sources said.
The impact on the global supply will depend on the length of disruption, the sources said. They declined to be named because they are not authorized to speak to the press.
Spot gold prices closed on Friday up 1.7% at $5,277 per troy ounce, their highest since January 30, with many analysts expecting safe-haven inflows into bullion once the market opens on Monday. Gold’s record high was $5,594.82 on January 29.
The market on Monday is likely to be dominated by financial flows on markets in Shanghai, London and New York, another source said.
“The major locations – China, India, New York, London and Zurich – are still okay,” a precious metals trader said.
