Mining at a turning point: Why 2026 will define the industry’s global standing
Codelco, SQM seal lithium venture in Chile’s Atacama desert
How a reclusive ex-Glencore trader became Indonesia’s nickel king
New York copper price surges again, Shanghai sets record
AI boom set to turbocharge uranium demand in 2026
Japan to test rare-earth mining from deep seabed mud
Mining at a turning point: Why 2026 will define the industry’s global standing
The mining industry is transforming as autonomy, clean-tech, and a digital workforce reshape operations. Without modernised permitting and domestic processing, the US risks ceding critical mineral leadership to global competitors.
The mining industry is entering one of the most consequential inflection points in its history. What was once discussed as a 'future state' – autonomous fleets, clean-tech operations, digitally enabled workforce transformations — is no longer on the horizon. It is here, it is accelerating, and it is reshaping how the world sources the minerals that power modern life.
Autonomous mining goes mainstream
Across major operations, large fleets of autonomous haulers, drills, and loaders are already running at scale. These systems, once limited to pilots and controlled environments, now integrate artificial intelligence capable of analysing millions of data points in seconds. Operators are optimising routes in real time, improving safety by removing people from high-risk zones, and increasing overall productivity. What’s most striking is how quickly autonomy is evolving from an experimental technology to a standard operating model, and how mines that delay adoption risk being left behind.
America has the minerals but not the processing capacity
The US sits atop vast reserves of the minerals essential to clean energy technologies, national security systems, and advanced manufacturing. Yet misconceptions about modern mining and chronically slow permitting timelines continue to stall progress. As a result, the US remains heavily dependent on adversarial nations for processing and refining. This gap represents not only an economic vulnerability but a strategic one. If America aims to strengthen supply chain resilience and reduce geopolitical risk, we must modernise our approach to permitting and invest meaningfully in domestic processing capacity.
A redefined mining workforce
As technology transforms the mine site, the workforce is transforming with it. Demand is rising sharply for data analysts, AI specialists, robotics engineers, and technicians skilled in automation and predictive maintenance. Mining companies are no longer only competing with other natural-resource sectors for talent; they are competing with aerospace, tech, and advanced manufacturing. Attracting the next generation requires showcasing the sophistication of today’s operations and providing clear pathways for upskilling existing employees. The mines of tomorrow will be operated by people fluent in both engineering fundamentals and digital fluency.
Codelco, SQM seal lithium venture in Chile’s Atacama desert
Salar de Atacama volcanic landscape
Chile’s Codelco and SQM completed a landmark deal aimed at boosting lithium extraction from the country’s Atacama Desert, giving the government control of one of the world’s richest reserves of the metal.
The state-owned copper giant and lithium producer SQM formed a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio SpA by merging Codelco affiliate Minera Tarar SpA with SQM Salar SpA, the companies said in a statement on Saturday. The deal will have a positive and material impact on Codelco’s 2025 financial results, the companies said.
As part of the transaction, SQM transferred all of its mining concessions in the Salar de Maricunga to Codelco.
NovaAndino Litio will control all lithium exploration, production and sales in the Salar de Atacama until 2060, ensuring continuity under existing contracts with development agency Corfo and new agreements that will take effect from 2031 onward, according to the statement.
The partnership is a pillar of President Gabriel Boric’s agenda to have more state control in key lithium assets while boosting output in the transition away from fossil fuels. The deal cleared its final major hurdle in November, when China granted approval, conditional upon the companies honoring existing commercial commitments and continue supplying Chinese customers on a “fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory” basis.
How a reclusive ex-Glencore trader became Indonesia’s nickel king
He’s the biggest trader in the world’s top producer of nickel, a metal that’s powering the shift to batteries and electric cars. His firms handle billions of dollars worth of ore and own stakes in mines covering an area around the size of New York City. Yet even in the metals industry, few know the name Arif Kurniawan.
Indonesia’s nickel sector has seen a dramatic rise in recent years, as technological innovation turned vast, low-grade deposits into mining dominance and industrial clout. Kurniawan’s fortunes have tracked that ascent. In under a decade, he has gone from earning paychecks at Glencore Plc to controlling approximately a third of his country’s domestic trade in nickel ore.
“Indonesia has been a complete disruptor of the nickel market over the last 10 years,” said Angela Durrant, principal analyst of base metals at consultancy CRU Group based in Sydney. “These local guys are the power brokers.”
Much has been written about the Chinese tycoons who poured billions into processing nickel in the Southeast Asian nation, flipping the global market and wrongfooting rivals. Less has been said about the Indonesians who control the mines that are the ultimate source of the metal, and about the influence they wield.
This first account of Kurniawan’s rise is based on interviews with more than 19 miners, traders and smelters familiar with his operations, who did business with or worked alongside him, as well as dozens of filings from Indonesia’s company registry. Most of the people asked not to be identified so they could discuss private matters.
New York copper price surges again, Shanghai sets record
New York and Shanghai were playing catchup on Friday after copper trading on the London Metal Exchange surged to a record high of $12,282 a tonne before the 148-year old market closed for the Christmas break.
Prices for the orange metal gained as much as 4.7% to trade near 100,000 yuan or $14,270 a tonne on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for the first time, opening up a huge premium to US markets.
Copper for delivery in March, the most active contract on the Comex in New York, climbed more than 5% to hit an intraday high of $5.90345 a pound or just over $13,000 per tonne in late morning trade.
It was the highest level since the short squeeze in July when copper briefly topped $6.00 per pound before falling by 20% after the US limited 50% tariffs to semi-finished products and excluded cathodes after some intense industry lobbying.
While most copper price predictions factor in supply disruptions of as much as 6%, 2025 was in many ways an exceptional year with high profile mines and top producers undershooting output targets.
A deadly accident at the world’s second-largest copper mine – Grasberg in Indonesia – saw owner Freeport McMoRan declare force majeure on deliveries and slash its 2026 output guidance. Freeport updated on progress at Grasberg in November saying full production is expected to be restored in 2027.
In May, an underground flood in the Democratic Republic of Congo at another high profile copper complex – Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula mine – and a fatal rock blast at Codelco’s El Teniente mine in July all crimped global production. Before the incident Kamoa-Kakula was set to become the world’s third largest copper operation.
In a recent note BMO Capital Markets said despite the commodity’s impressive gains already, copper still offers upside, with ongoing US stockpiling dominating price formation. The investment bank forecasts an average of $12,500 by the second quarter of 2026, before mine supply catch-up offers some relief.
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a major new driver of global electricity demand, reinforcing the investment case for nuclear power and tightening the outlook for uranium markets heading into 2026.
A global investor survey commissioned by Uranium.io shows that the rapid expansion of AI systems and hyperscale data centres is already reshaping long-term expectations for nuclear generation and uranium procurement. Based on responses from more than 600 investors, the study finds that electricity demand linked to AI is increasingly viewed as structural rather than cyclical, at a time when uranium supply is already constrained.
More than 63% of respondents believe AI-related consumption will become a material factor in nuclear planning over the next decade, arguing that traditional demand models underestimate the power needs of large-scale computing. As a result, nuclear energy is gaining renewed attention as a reliable, carbon-free baseload option capable of supporting surging digital infrastructure.
Limited supply relief
That demand signal is colliding with a market facing persistent supply challenges. A majority of surveyed investors expect mined uranium to meet less than 75% of future reactor requirements, citing years of underinvestment, long permitting timelines and declining secondary supplies. Against that backdrop, more than 85% anticipate higher prices into 2026, with many pointing to a $100–$120/lb range and some referencing upside scenarios as high as $135/lb if supply fails to respond.
Sprott Asset Management echoes that view in its latest uranium outlook, describing a market defined by “two speeds”: short-term volatility masking increasingly bullish long-term fundamentals. The firm expects a supply deficit to widen over the coming decade as global mine production continues to lag reactor demand, while utility contracting remains below replacement levels. In Sprott’s assessment, higher prices will be required to incentivize restarts and greenfield developments needed to close the gap.
Japan to test rare-earth mining from deep seabed mud
Japan will conduct a month-long test to extract rare-earth-rich mud from the deep seabed near the remote Minamitorishima Island, marking a first-of-its-kind effort to continuously lift material from about 6,000 metres below the surface.
Minamitorishima Island.
The operation, led by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, will run from Jan. 11 to Feb. 14 about 1,900 kilometres southeast of Tokyo. It aims to connect a full deep-sea mining system and confirm it can raise 350 metric tonnes of mud a day while monitoring environmental impacts onboard and on the seabed.
The test comes as Japan and its Western allies seek more secure access to critical minerals amid tighter export controls by China, the dominant supplier of rare earths.
“One of our missions is to build a supply chain for domestically produced rare earths to ensure stable supply of minerals essential to industry,” Shoichi Ishii, a program director at the Strategic Innovation Promotion Program, told Nikkei Asia.
Strategic push
No production target has been set, but if the test succeeds, the agency plans a full-scale demonstration by February 2027 to recover the same daily volume. Because the mud cannot be processed at sea, it would be shipped to Minamitorishima, where seawater would be removed using equipment similar to a washing machine’s spin dryer, cutting volume by about 80%, before being transported to mainland Japan for separation and refining.
The government-funded project has spent about 40 billion yen ($256 million) since 2018, Ishii said, though estimated reserves have not been disclosed.
